I’ve been listening to a lot of talk about the new cut uncommon gem price expected to hit with patch 4.1. Cut uncommons (alicite, hessonite, carnelian, zephyrite, jasper, nightseye) will vendor for 75s when instead of 9g. This shouldn’t be as shocking of a change as everyone is making it out to be. It was really strange for cut uncommon gems to be vendoring for more than cut rare gems, which vendor for 3g 75s each. Several people have noted this, and it should be no surprise that Blizzard is fixing this discrepancy.

Still, people are talking about how they are going to dump their ore now, before the change hits so that they aren’t stuck with worthless amounts of ore. Worthless?!  THIS ORE IS NOT WORTHLESS! The shuffle is still gong to be very profitable, but you can’t focus on the quick big cash hit from cut gems.

A simple example of this:

10 stacks of obsidium ore currently has a “floor price” of 54g. This “floor price” means that prospecting one stack of ore will give you 6 uncommon gems on average. Cutting these gems and vendoring for 9g each gives you 54 gold. This is your break-even point with zero profit, unless you proc a rare gem during the prospecting, in which case you make a little profit if you throw it in the auction house.

I just prospected 10 stacks of Obsidium ore and received 61 uncommon gems and 1 inferno ruby. I crafted jewelry from the gems and proc’d 5 rare pieces of jewelry. (3 rare Jasper Rings and 2 rare Hessonite bands.) The rest of the jewelry I disenchanted into mats. Here is what I ended up with, along with the low-end estimate of what they have been selling for in the AH on my server:

3 Jasper Rings: ~60g each = 180g
2 Hessonite Bands: ~90g each = 180g
29 Hypnotic dust: ~6g each = 174g
11 Greater Celestial Essence: ~30g each = 330g
7 Lesser Celestial Essence: ~9g each = 63g

This adds up to a total of 927g. Subtract the cost of the ore (54g x 10 stacks=540g) and my profit is 387g.

Okay… what if I didn’t proc those rare rings, and just ended up with uncommon rings?

387g – 360g = 27g + mats for DE of the 5 uncommon rings

If we assume that I only end up with hypnotic dust from those rings, and that I get 2 dusts per ring.  (Usually it’s between 1 and 3 dusts per DE) then that comes out to:

10 Hypnotic dust: ~6g each = 60g

Added to the original total profit of 27g = 87g profit.

The whole process took me ~ 5 minutes, so I could technically do this 12 times in one hour. For sake of argument lets say 10 times in one hour, which equates to 100 stacks of ore per hour. My 87g in five minutes comes out to be 870g per hour, which while not spectacular, is still not bad.

Let’s assume then that I bought the ore for 48g a stack instead of the current “floor price” of 54g. This gives me another 60g per 5 minutes, for a total profit of 1470g per hour. Keep in mind again that this is calculated without rare jewelry procs, and not counting any rare gem drops from the prospecting.

So… math is far from my strongest talent, but I am pretty sure that I have things correct here. (Please let me know if you see something I missed or calculated incorrectly!)

Even though I’m not making as much profit as I would with selling the cut gems for the current 9g rate, I’m still making almost 1500g profit per hour. I also believe that the price of lvl 80’s mats (hypnotic dust, Celestial Essence) will go up after this change because many people WILL give up shuffling. The mats will only come from DE’d drops in that case. People who are running new content and upgrading gear will need to rebuy enchants for that gear, so demand for the mats will stay the same, if not increase. By continuing to shuffle, I’m keeping a supply with which to feed the market, and have the opportunity to gain some control over the market for these mats.

-zath

2 Comments to “THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! Why it’s NOT the end of the Obsidum Shuffle!”

  • While I agree the shuffle will still be useful, but one thing people fail to see is that one person can only move so many enchanting mats in a given day. When the floor price if 54g, you can continually prospect and vendor 24/7. If a handful of people did this after the nerf, the price of enchanting mats is going to drop through the ground. I will still be doing the shuffle until / if it becomes nonprofitable. I personally can’t wait to see how this all shakes out.

  • Thanks for your comment. I agree that it is currently possible to prospect/vendor almost constantly, and that when the price-change comes into play, a lot of people will turn their focus to prospect/DE instead. However, I don’t think that this will have as great of an effect on a per-server basis as many people seem to believe.

    There is a small handful of people on my server who consistently post lvl 80’s mats to the AH, and I really believe that the number of people who know about and use the shuffle is a really small percentage of a given server population. With that in mind, I expect that mat prices won’t change much on my server, or if they do change, it will be an increase. Those doing the shuffle primarily for vendoring will probably drop the shuffle all together since the larger quick profit is gone. That means that less mats will come available. Demand for mats will increase in the short term as people shift up to newer gear and need to re-enchant.

    Honestly… it could go positively or negatively, and none of us will really be able to know until the patch hits. 🙂 I feel pretty secure that I can keep shuffling for mats and pull in enough profit to cover my invested time.

    Zath

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